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It has been a busy May and I haven't had as much time to post as I would like, so I am just getting around to this. I launched APEX live on April 27, 2026. These are some notes on what it is, how it works, etc. — mostly for my own reference, but also for anyone who stumbles across this later and wants context. What It Does APEX is a machine learning-driven algorithm that rotates between TQQQ (3x leveraged Nasdaq-100) and BIL (short-term Treasury ETF). It's binary — 100% in o

Current Allocation: 100% BIL (cash proxy). TQQQ position: 0%. The APEX QQQ Trading Algo remains entirely in BIL. The risk-on gate is fully open and the machine learning model is in sole control of the allocation decision. The gate is a structural filter the algo uses to determine whether broad market conditions are healthy enough to even consider holding TQQQ. When it is closed, the algo sits in cash regardless of anything else. Right now it is open, meaning the market has cl

I entered the TECS position on April 8 , expecting that a breakdown in U.S.–Iran negotiations would crack the market and send it further into negative territory. The geopolitical thesis itself was correct: the Islamabad talks collapsed over the April 11–12 weekend, with both sides publicly acknowledging failure by April 15, but the market didn’t care. What’s even more striking is that after this weekend’s activities in the Strait of Hormuz and the aggressive posturing by both

I opened a short position in TECS this afternoon, driven by a cluster of conditions that point to exhaustion in TECL rather than a continued upward run. Note: TECS is the short ETF counterpart to the long TECL. TECL has surged from $76 at the end of March to $104.25 today, a sharp runup that has pushed it into a clearly overbought near‑term territory. Price alone isn’t the issue—the character of the move is. Each push higher has been accompanied by declining hourly volume, s

Gold's recent selloff reflects profit taking and forced liquidations, not sutructural changes. The metal remains fundamentally sound, and history along with the current option positioning favor a rally inside the 3 - 12 month horizon. The Selloff Gold has taken a beating. GLD is trading at $412, a drop of 19% from its high of $510 (the peak on January 29 after an exponential burn-up). GLD fell fast after the start of the Iran war as the market gave into fears of inflation an

What follows is a postmortem of the trade described in: Oil: Why the Short-Term Trade Points Higher . The original piece was published on Friday, February 27 — the same afternoon I entered a position long in UCO. A bit of context on the timing: I had been watching oil for roughly two weeks, weighing the setup against the structural bear case laid out in the original article. The original thesis was straightforward: with U.S.-Iran tensions visibly escalating and talks deterior

The crude oil market is living a contradiction right now. The fundamental picture — supply, demand, inventories — is as bearish as it has been in years. Yet geopolitical risk in the Middle East is quietly rebuilding a premium into prices that could, under the right circumstances, send crude sharply higher in the near term. Understanding both sides of this tension is essential before making any move. This piece lays out the three scenarios that will determine where oil goes in

I hesitate to write this article because it risks sounding alarmist. But as an investor, a husband, a father, and a wage earner, I feel obligated to look at the world as it is, not as I wish it to be. Hope is not a hedge. Optimism is not a plan. And when structural forces begin reshaping the economy at a pace we haven’t seen in decades, ignoring them is not prudence, it’s negligence. It’s in that spirit that I approach the topic of systemic, AI‑driven unemployment—a conversat

The Nasdaq‑100 has spent the early weeks of 2026 in a holding pattern. The QQQ - overweighted with mega‑cap tech and AI leaders - has repeatedly failed to break above its October 2025 high of 635. It trades range-bound between the 635 ceiling and the 600 level. Adding to the tension, QQQ is now converging on its 200‑day moving average, a key level of support. Historically, when price meets the 200‑day from above, markets often face a moment of truth: either buyers defend the

In 1999, E * TRADE aired a memorable commercial that opens with an office worker sitting at his desk when he notices an incoming message pop up on his PC. Curious, he opens it and discovers that a stock he owns has skyrocketed. He leaps from his chair in joy, races upstairs, barges into his boss’s office, and triumphantly announces that he’s quitting. But the punchline comes fast. As he strolls back to his desk, basking in his newfound freedom, he settles into his chair and