Trade Log — TECS (April 8, 2026)

I opened a short position in TECS this afternoon, driven by a cluster of conditions that point to exhaustion in TECL rather than a continued upward run. Note: TECS is the short ETF counterpart to the long TECL.

TECL has surged from $76 at the end of March to $104.25 today, a sharp runup that has pushed it into a clearly overbought near‑term territory. Price alone isn’t the issue—the character of the move is. Each push higher has been accompanied by declining hourly volume, slipping from roughly 278,000 shares/hr on 3/30 to 206,000 shares/hr today - a 25% drop in 5 trading days. That kind of deterioration signals fading demand at elevated prices, not healthy accumulation. What's more, today marks the third consecutive gap‑up since March 30th, a pattern that reflects an over‑optimistic, one‑sided market rather than durable conviction.

Of course, this is all driven by the Middle East ceasefire - most notably the fact that Trump's Tuesday 8:00 PM ultimatum was averted. But the ceasefire is - as Vice President Vance characterized it - "fragile". Given the Iranians' track record for deceptive negotiating practices and the regime's history of honoring agreements only selectively or temporarily, it's hard to imagine a sudden and stark move toward full cooperation, particularly not from a regime whose core value includes martyrdom. They're not just willing to lose, they are literally willing to fight to their ends. Negotiations are set to start Friday, but the two sides couldn't be more divided from the outset. Iran's plan includes demands to retain control over the strait (an international body of water mind you), lifting of sanctions, acknowledgement of Iran's right to enrich uranium, and a ceasefire in Lebanon (Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed proxy, continues to launch rockets into Israel from Lebanon triggering an aggressive Israeli retaliation). Oh - and a cease fire with Lebanon is off the table for the Israelis. For its part, the United States takes issue with several points in the Iranian plan qualifying some as unacceptable. This list of recent events sums it up. "Fragile" may be an understatement. Given the geopolitical uncertainty and TECL sitting firmly in overbought territory, the upside case looks thin. The setup favors a near term reversion.