TRIPS OPTIMIZER
The J3 Trips Optimizer seeks to exploit overbought and oversold conditions across a basket of four leveraged ETFs:
The trade logic is wrapped in a risk‑limiting framework that deliberately suppresses most trading activity during broad market downtrends, avoiding losses when equity momentum deteriorates. During these downtrends, the optimizer maintains selective exposure to gold through UGL, not as a traditional hedge, but as a diversified holding that creates viable opportunities even as equity allocations are reduced.
Highlights
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Compounded Growth: Annualized returns in excess of 8 times that of the S&P500.
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Risk Control: Maximum drawdowns effectively the same as the S&P500.
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Superiod Performance: Sortino Ratio of 2.5+ reflects strength in limiting downside exposure.
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Proven Stability: Test set outperforms the training set in terms of CAGR with minimal added risk.
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Execution Discipline: One trade every 8 days demonstrates a measured approach leaving manual execution as a practical option.
Launch Date: 12/29/2025
Data Frequency: Hourly
Performance to Date
Gain
Compound Annual Growth Rate
Portfolio:
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S&P500:
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Backtest Performance (Training Set)
Start: 04/03/2024
Finish: 12/31/2024
Run Time (days): 272
Orders: 36
Starting Equity: $10,000
Ending Equity: $21,001
Sortino Ratio: 4.03
Net Profit: 110%
CAGR: 170%
Average Win: 7.33%
Average Loss: -5.36%
Profit-Loss Ratio: 1.37
Win Rate: 78%
Max Drawdown: 17.2%
Asset Allocation
Cummulative Returns
Drawdown
Backtest Performance (Test Set)
Start: 01/01/2025
Finish: 12/26/2025
Run Time (days): 362
Orders: 50
Starting Equity: $10,000
Ending Equity: $23,480
Sortino Ratio: 2.68
Net Profit: 134.8%
CAGR: 136.1%
Average Win: 5.17%
Average Loss: -2.67%
Profit-Loss Ratio: 1.93
Win Rate: 80%
Max Drawdown: 18.2%
Asset Allocation
Cummulative Returns
Drawdown
Monte Carlo Simulation
Number of completed trades (buy/sell combinations): 25
Span: 312 days (~0.855 years)
Trades per year (historical): 29.25 (29)
Average holding period: 8.583 days
Average idle period between trades: 8.279 days
Metric CAGR (%) Max Drawdown (%) Sortino Ratio
Mean 102.122 -13.161 13.017
Median 89.354 -12.107 5.071
p5 7.578 -26.141 0.588
p25 49.232 -17.118 2.845
p75 140.237 -8.568 11.614
p95 242.851 -4.423 83.691
Investing in the funds of this algorithm involves a high degree of risk. Unlike traditional ETFs, leveraged ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and may not track the underlying stock’s performance over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. The Funds will lose money if the underlying stock’s performance is flat, and it is possible that any of the ETFs may lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance increases over a period longer than a single day. Investing in the Funds is not equivalent to investing in their underlying instruments.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate. An investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. Returns for performance under one year are cumulative, not annualized. Short-term performance, in particular, is not a good indication of a fund’s future performance, and an investment should not be made based solely on returns. Because of ongoing market volatility and rotation, algorithm performance may be subject to substantial short-term changes.